Elitism

# Elitism
## Public Policy Analysis: Perspectives and Methods (30700953)
### Yue HU

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## Overview

Rational choice model

- Economic ~
- Bounded ~
- Irrational ~

]

- Elitism
    - Evolution of Elitism
        - Classic
        - Elite democracy
        - Contemorary
    - Elites as who
    - Elites and Masses
    - Application

- Group theory (next lecture)
]

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# Evolution of Elitism

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## Classic Elitism (Italian School)

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## A Nutshell

Masses are unorganized;

Elite governance is inevitable.
]

Elites .red[make] the rule;

Masses .red[follow] the rule;

Elites .blue[get] benefits; masses .red[suffer].    
]

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Governing elites; non-~; masses

Circulation of elites
- No progress in human history
- Democracy is a fraud
]

???

统治精英集团、非统治的精英集团和普通大众

社会的发展过程就是政治精英的无限循环过程，是一个精英集团衰落和另一个精英集团兴起的“精英循环”

Politcal class; non-~

Circulation of elites
- A perpetual condition of conflict
- A recycle of the elite

]

???

same as Pareto, circulation of elites

Elites that are superior organizational skills

精英的形成有两种方式：
- 渐变机制，即下层社会的一部分人地位不断上升，最终导致现有精英的新陈代谢，类似于精英的循环；
- 突生机制，即无论是被统治阶级还是统治阶级，都存在自己的精英，两种精英在权力斗争中发生相互替代，类似于精英再生产。

Unlike Marx, Mosca has not a linear concept of time, but a circular one

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- Need
- Utilization
- Psychological attributes

]

???

Variance of leaders
1. Need for leaders, specialized staff and facilities
1. Utilization of facilities by leaders within their organization
1. The importance of the psychological attributes of the leaders

Desire to dominate &rarr; leaders

Bureaucratization and specialization &rarr; Bureaucracy
]

???
Iron law of oligarchy

same with Mosca, elites need to be organized

Bureaucracy means Rationalization and routinization of decision making

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## Advanced Version of Elitism: Elite Democracy

- The society is controlled by elites
- Pluralistic elites: leading the interest groups
- Elites are morally responsible to the public

???

Leading not delegate interest groups

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Elites:     
The most .red[educated and highest-income] members of society

Democracy:    
A pressure system, produces a government .red[approved] by the people
]

???

/shat'shnaider/

Elites:     
A .red[triumvirate] of power groups—political, economic and military
Distinguishable, not unified, power-wielding body

Democracy: A permanent war economy leading to a manipulative sociopolitical order
]

???

/shat'shnaider/

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## Contemporary Elitism

???

What can you see?

Elite bring benefit -> Elite shape the masses (became the core in their own selfies)

**Classic**

1. Elites .red[have] the power;    
1. Elites .red[make] the rule;   
1. Masses .red[follow] the rule;   
1. Elites .blue[get] benefits; masses .red[suffer].    
]

**Contemporary**

1. Elites .red[have] the power; (Same)
1. Elites .red[make] the rule; (Same)
1. Masses .red[participate];
1. Elites get .blue[benefits]; masses .blue[satisfy].
]

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## Trends of Elite Theories

- Voters choose which elites to govern in competitive elections
- Pluralistic elite organizations
- Vertical and horizontal mobility (by democratic institutions)

- Liberalism
- Democracy
]

- (Elite) power structure
- Elite governance
]

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# Who Are the Elites

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## The "Who"

Simply put:

???

Not only mean monetary, but also education, social network, etc.

Bush: MBA from Harvard Business School  
 Trump: UPenn, Wharton School

Biden: University of Delaware and Syracuse University

In 1968, Biden earned a Juris Doctor from Syracuse University College of Law, ranked 76th in his class of 85, after failing a course due to an acknowledged "mistake" when he plagiarized a law review article for a paper he wrote in his first year at law school.

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## The Who But...

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# Elite-Mass Relationship

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## Elites &harr; Masses: Immediate Contact

???

Individual: voting

???

Individual: personal contact

???

Collective: Campaigning

???

Collective: communal

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## Elites &harr; Masses: Long-Term Path

.center[<img src="images/elite_mobility.png" height = 250 /> 
<img src = "images/elite_inglehart.jpg" height = 300>
<img src = "images/elite_modernization.jpg" height = 300>
]

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## Application I

.small[
Mukuru, Moses et al. 2021. “‘The Actor Is Policy’: Application of Elite Theory to Explore Actors’ Interests and Power Underlying Maternal Health Policies in Uganda, 2000-2015.” *International Journal of Health Policy and Management* 10(7): 388–401.
]

*Objective*: Role of elites on achieving global targets in low- and middle-income countries

*Theory*: Classic elite theory

*Method*: Case of Uganda on Millennium Development Goal, Target 5 (MDG 5), 2000-2015; Interviews and focus group discussions
- Target 5: [Reduce by three quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio](https://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/maternal.shtml)

*Findings*: Elites' personal interests rather than the MDG 5 influences the countries maternal health policies.
- Elites control over the policy process

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## Application II

.small[
Solt, Frederick, Yue Hu, Kevan Hudson, Jungmin Song, Yu Dong, 2017. “Economic Inequality and Class Consciousness.” *The Journal of Politics* 79(3): 1079–83.
]

Objective: Who are the activists in political participation, the waker or the rich?

.pull-left[<img src="images/elite_wakerVote.jpg" height = 270 />]
.pull-right[<img src="images/elite_richVote.jpg" height = 270 />]

Theory: Social psychology vs. relative power theory

Method: Pew surveys 2005--2009

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## Once upon a time...

Newman, Johnston & Lown 2015

Exposure to higher levels of local income inequality

&darr;

Low-income people to view the United States as .red[divided];     
Low-income people identify themselves as the .red["have-not"]

&darr;

Class consciousness

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## Theoretical Debate

.pull-left[.center[<img src = "images/elite_yanhui.jpg" height = 300>]]
.pull-right[.center[<img src = "images/elite_guanzhong.png" height = 300>]]

???

贤哉回也！一箪食,一瓢饮,在陋巷,人不堪其忧,回也不改其乐

仓廪实而知礼节，衣食足而知荣辱

SES &rarr; civic orientation &rarr; participation
]

Pr(participation) &prop; Pr(win)* &times; Payoff

.footnote[\* The richer can .blue[afford more] participation cost---they also .red[what they can win].]
]

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## Empirical Examination

???

More income, more unlikely to identify as the have-not

It looks significant, when inequality increases, the income's effect on identifying inequality

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## Bonus: The Opposite of Elitism?

Populism or Pluralism?

Key question: Who's in charge?

### Elitism

]

### Pluralism

]

???

There are places among the levels and branches that people and groups can engage.

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background-image: url("images/elite_mindmap.png")
background-position: center
background-size: contain

## Take-Home Points

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## DGP Workshop: Survey
### Survey Instrument

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- A long list of questions
- Annual/biennial
- Not always repeat
]

- A few questions
- Many times in a short period
- Questions repeatedly using
]

.bg-black.golden.ba.shadow-5.ph4.mt3[
A Poll: A type of inquiry designed to measure the public's views regarding to a particular topic or series of topics.
]

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## Why Polling

A.k.a., who can You help?

Help .red[social scientists] test theories

Help .red[political candidates] in elections

Help political .red[elites] make policy

Help .red[media] capture the public sentiment

......

.footnote[
.blue[Trivia]: The first known political poll is a straw pollabout presidential favorites published in *Harrisburg Pennsylvanian* but in Wilmington Delaware during July 1824.
The poll results were reported "without discrimination of findings," which was 19th-century-speak for that the publishers didn't "cook the data." 
]

???

Straw poll: A straw poll, straw vote, or straw ballot is an ad hoc or unofficial vote.

The idiom may allude to a straw (thin plant stalk) held up to see in what direction the wind blows, in this case, the wind of group opinion.

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## Polling Can EASILY Go Wrong

*An old story*

1936 Literary Digest Poll, 2.4 million people:

Predicted Landon, and FDR won by a large margin.

- Sampling
- Nonresponse
- Self-selection
]

???

《文学文摘》，刊登过汪精卫照片，因为1936而臭名昭著

Sampling telephone owners, richer

- **Sampling**: Telephone directory in the United States, lists of magazine subscribers, rosters of clubs and associations, and other sources
- **Nonresponse**: 2.4 million response for 10 million request
- **Self-selection**: A high (inflated) rate of reported voting

George Gallup的美国民意研究所通过正确预测1936年大选的结果获得了国家认可，而盖洛普也正确地预测了大选的结果, sample size 50,000.

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*A (relatively) new story*

Reasons:

- Undecided voters broke for Trump
- Higher turnout among Trump’s supporters
- Trump's supporters in the Rust Belt region was underestimated

???
The Rust Belt is a region of the United States that experienced industrial decline starting around 1980. 五大湖周围

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## Scope of Survey

Five topics you want to poll

- Ethics
- Practicability
- Sensitivity

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## Question Type

*Descriptive* questions

> Is social trust decreasing or increasing in China?

*Relational* questions

> Are men more conservative than women?

> Does the COVID-19 disproportionately and negatively affect the urban residents' income?

???

Questions designed for looking at the relationship between two or more variables

Causal questions

> Does population aging cause economic decline?

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## Being Clear about the Components

How to measure political culture?

### Conceptualization

- Behavior or attitude
- Individual or group

### Measurement

1. Strongly disagree
1. Disagree
1. Neither agree nor disagree
1. Agree
1. Strongly agree
]

1 to 7

1 to 10

1 to 100
]

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### Theory

A logic of why: Y &larr; Xs

### Hypothesis

A .red[testable] statement about the empirical relationship between X and Y.

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## Procedure for Conducting a Scientific Survey

Designing questions

Interviewing

Mode of data collection

Total survey design
]

???

Interviewing, not necessary but a way to conduct surveys, starting with standardized questions, open questions at the end.

- Ensure consistency
- Scripted procedures and itneractions
- Avoid influencing the answers
- Limit unstructured discussion

Mode, in-perspon, telephone, etc.

Total design， procedure decisions to make

- The choice of whether or not to use a probability sample
- The sample frame (those people who actually have a chance to be sampled)
- The size of the sample
- The sample design (the particular strategy used for sampling people or households)
- The rate of response (the percentage of those sampled for whom data are actually collected)

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## Being Clear About the Purpose

.bg-black.golden.ba.shadow-5.ph4.mt3[
You don’t have to eat the whole ox to know that the meat is
tough.

Two inferences made by a survey/poll

- Inferring the .red[characteristics] of a respondent from his/her answers
- Inferring the target .red[population] from the sample of people

???

主编《莎士比亚集》

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## Being Clear About the Issues

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## Errors Associated with Who Answers

Sampling error

- Representing a wrong population

???

Marketing polling often have this issue; volunteer survey also

- Detectable with hindsight checks (statistics)
    - Weights

- Cure: 
    - Large size
    - Random sampling. Well...

???

A good example is flipping coin. If we flip a coin at 10 time, on average, we know there 5 times we get head. but, we might get 5 heads and 5 tails this time, and 6 heads and 4 tails next time. or maybe, we are no lucky,and get 9 tails and 1 head, which should be rare. however, if we do it over and over, on average, you get 5 heads but there are some variations in your draws. the difference is from random drawn. the same logic when we do survey interview. By chance, sometimes there will be too many females in the sample, sometimes too few, but on average, a series of properly drawn samples will have very close to the same percentage of females as the population as a whole. we don’t interview the population, we interview the sample. results might be different from different samples. sampling error catch up the differences.

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## Sampling Bias

Sampling errors often refer to .red[random] errors;     
Sampling bias is an error that is .red[systematic] in nature.

How?

1. Sample frame: who has a chance to be selected
2. Process of selecting: how are respondents are selected
3. Failure to collect answers from everyone: who in the sample answers the survey or specific questions

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## Errors Associated with the Answers

`$$x_i = t_i + e_i$$`
i: The respondent 
xi: The answer 
ti: The true value 
ei: The error

NB: A dangerous "enemy", social/political desirability

**Validity**: A concept/measurement of the distance between the actual answer and true value.

- Both errors and biases lead to lower validity!

???

For example, we try to avoid to ask behaviors that happened a long ago. in last week, probably not in last month. how many time did you drive over speed in last year.

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background-image: url("images/survey_mindmap.png")
background-position: center
background-size: contain

## Quick Review