class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # A Scientific Approach of Public Policy Analysis ## Public Policy Analysis: Perspectives and Methods (30700953) ### Yue HU --- ## Administrative 1. Professionalization ??? Finish an article in a weekend -- 1. First assignment + Group assignment + City assignment --- class: inverse, bottom # Previously in the *Public Policy Analysis*... --- ## Syllabus Is THE Guide - What you will learn - How to understand public policies as a *professional* trainer - How to analyze public policies as a social *scientist* - How to evaluate public policy analyses as an *expert* -- - What you need to do - Learning (Reading what you are supposed to read) - Enjoying (Being active in and off-class) - Dominate your own analysis (big-data/survey) - Tip: Staring at the instructor as you know everything 😝 - Presenting - Challenging - Final report --- ## Overview 1. Landscape of policy analysis 1. Understanding policies .red[scientifically] - Why doing so - How to do --- ## A Taste of the Professional Area .center[<img src="images/sci_guodegang.jpg" height = 550 />] --- ## Whose Opinions You May Care More A.k.a., the professionals + Major: + Public Policy/Administration + Social Policy/Administration + Degree: Ph.D., MPA + Over 200 institutions by 2014 --- ## Social Policy & Administration .pull-left[ .center[<img src="images/sci_qs2022a.jpeg" height = 550 />] ] -- .pull-right[ .center[ <img src="images/sci_qs2022b.jpeg" height = 450 /> ...... <img src="images/sci_qs2022c.jpeg" /> ] ] ??? Reference: "[QS World University Ranking](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/university-subject-rankings/2019/social-policy-administration#indicator-tab)" Quacquarelli Symonds: a British company specializing in education Previous known as "Times Higher Education-QS World University Rankings" --- ## Political Science .pull-left[ .center[<img src="images/sci_qs2022a_ps.jpeg" height = 550 />] ] -- .pull-right[ .center[<img src="images/sci_qs2022b_ps.jpeg" height = 550 />] ] --- ## "Evaluation" of the Education Policy 1. Academic reputation .small[(expert opinions from 130,000 academic individuals)] 1. Employer reputation .small[(75,000 responses to the QS Employer Survey)] 1. Faculty/Student Ratio 1. Citations per faculty .small[(five-year publication window for papers, 96 million self-citations were excluded)] 1. International faculty ratio 1. International student ratio -- ⇒ .red[Weighted] results `$$Score = 0.4AP + 0.1EP + 0.2FR + 0.2CF + 0.05IFR + 0.05ISR.$$` --- ## "Analysis" of Policy Implication ### Resort | Approach | China | U.S. | |------------------|-------|------| | Outsider<sup>1</sup> | 55% | | | Limited insider<sup>2</sup> | 15% | 75% | | In-depth insider<sup>3</sup> | 30% | 25% | .right[.small[Source: He et al 2016, Table 4]] .footnote[ [1] Solely of public policy .red[theories]. [2] Positivist .red[framework] and .red[analysis] based on welfare economics. [3] Strong .red[analytic orientation] ] --- ### Content - China Public policy theories, policy environments, and policy processes -- - U.S. Welfare economics, rational modeling, utilities --- background-image: url("images/sci_heetal2016tb3.png") background-position: center background-size: contain ??? The U.S, on Cost-benefit analysis and below, strategy of policy making --- ## Actor .center[<img src="images/sci_heetal2016tb2.png" height = 500 />] ??? Few Chinese instructors focus on applied policy research **NEXT**: In this class, teaching positivist policy analysis based on *social scientific paradigm*. Is that even possible? --- class: inverse, bottom .center[ <video width="700" height="500" controls preload> <source src="images/sci_sheldon_socialScience.mp4" type="video/mp4"> </video> ] # Why Being Scientific --- ## Scientific Paradigms > Paradigm: a bag of theories, research methods, postulates, and standards for what constitutes contributions to a field. -- ### Positivist - French, *positivisme* (/positee vish men/), derived from positif in its sense of 'imposed on the mind by experience'. - *Data*-based - Problem solving through systematic queries ??? Dominant, 实证主义; being positivist alone is not scientific -- ### Post-positivist + *Value*-based (norms, morality, culture) + Normative, ethical process ??? .greenLight[Q]: Does Positivist mean scientific? --- ## [解决低生育的办法找到了——中国生育报告](https://www.sohu.com/a/515447321_467568) > 中国正面临世界上最严峻的老龄化少子化挑战，“低生育率陷阱”。**中国人口形势概括讲， 老龄化比其他国家更快，少子化比其他国家更低。**……有证据表明，2021年生育率将进一步降低到1.1左右，比欧美发达国家还低50%多，出生人口可能降至1000万左右。如果政策不做大力度调整，中国将在几十年内成为老龄化程度和人口萎缩最严重的国家之一。看看全球的总和生育率数据，欧洲是1.6，北美洲是1.8，拉丁美洲是2，大洋洲2.4，亚洲2.2，中国1.1，日本1.34，非洲是4，穆斯林国家是3.6。……**一定要抓住75-85年还能生的时间窗口，抓紧出台鼓励生育基金，再不出台就晚了，不要指望90后00后。**我国育龄妇女正在以每年300万-400万的速度在下降。原因也很简单，就是75年-85年的这批人还有多子多福的生育观念，而90后和00后不要说生二胎或者三胎，很多人甚至连结婚都不愿意。根据数据显示，2018年我国的单身成年人口还有2.4亿，其中处于独居状态的就有7200万人，预计到2021年这一数据可能会涨至9200万人。除此之外从2013年起我国的新婚登记人口人数也是一年不如一年，2020年年新婚登记人数只有813万对。所以，想要鼓励生三胎还是要看75年-85年的这批人。 ??? Group discussion 任泽平， 国务院发展研究中心宏观部研究室副主任，国泰君安证券研究所董事总经理、首席宏观分析师等职务，清华大学经济管理学院博士后，中国人民大学经济学博士。前恒大集团首席经济学家（副总裁级）兼恒大经济研究院院长。2021年3月18日，任泽平加盟东吴证券，拟出任东吴证券特邀首席经济学家。 --- ## Let's Decompose It *Problem* > [中国]老龄化比其他国家更快，少子化比其他国家更低。 -- *Theory* > 出生人口可能降至1000万左右。如果政策不做大力度调整，中国将在几十年内成为老龄化程度和人口萎缩最严重的国家之一。 -- *Evidence* > 欧洲是1.6，北美洲是1.8，拉丁美洲是2，大洋洲2.4，亚洲2.2，中国1.1，日本1.34，非洲是4，穆斯林国家是3.6。 -- *Solution/Conclusion* > 一定要抓住75-85年还能生的时间窗口，抓紧出台鼓励生育基金，再不出台就晚了，不要指望90后00后。 --- ## How Much Science -- A human inquiry .center[ <video width="700" height="400" controls preload> <source src="images/sci_Charle's_Angle_ScientistScene.mp4" type="video/mp4"> </video> ] .pull-right[--- "Charle's Angle" (2019)] ??? Charle's Angle, 2019, Columbia Pictures, Elizabeth Banks' film Let's see another example: mushroom --- .pull-left[ ### Eatable? <img src="images/sci_mushroom.jpg" height = 300 /> ] -- .pull-right[ ### Find your BFF and observe... <img src="images/sci_mushroomT.jpg" height = 300 /> ] -- .center[What's the problem?] --- ## [“你递啊，你伸啊！”收费员和司机僵持1分钟](“你递啊，你伸啊！”收费员和司机僵持1分钟) .center[<img src="images/sci_driverCasher.gif" height = 500 />] --- ## Depending on the Data You Collect .pull-left[.center[<img src="images/sci_driverCasher.jpeg" height = 550 />]] -- .pull-right[ <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> Data Generation Process (DGP) matters!] --- class: center, middle ## Flaws of Human Inquiries Selection observation -- Inaccurate observation -- Overgeneralization -- Illogical reasoning ...... ??? .orange[NEXT]: What should we do? --- ## Human → Scientific Inquiries After the guessing (also denoted as "hypothesizing")... -- .pull-left[ ### DGP *Valid* + Representative *Sufficient* + Diverse ] -- .pull-right[ ### Analysis Proper & consistent - P → A → M & M ⇒ implications/conclusions ] ??? Perspective, approach, method and measurement Approach includes inductive and deductive, elaborated later .orange[NEXT]: Why are these scientific? --- ## What Makes an Inquiry More Scientific? .center[<img src="images/sci_falsifiability.png" height = 550 />] --- class: inverse, bottom --- ## How to Be Scientific: Criteria of the Procedure .red[Valid] DGP 1. Where to find data? 1. Are the data legit? 1. How to make sense of the data? -- .red[Credible] analyses Assumption + Theory → Method + Data → Conclusion ??? Another way to say: Perspective, approach, method and measurement --- ## Scientific Process in Scientific Terms .pull-left[ ### Three(Four) Steps<sup>1</sup> Exploration Description Explanation (Prediction) ] .footnote[ [1] NB: No need to complete in one piece. ] ??? NB: Notare bene (note well) -- .pull-right[ ### Two Approaches Inductive Deductive ] ??? .orange[NEXT]: Explained in the next page --- background-image: url("images/sci_wheelScience.png") background-position: center background-size: contain ??? The mushroom, the traditional medicine are inductive --- ## A Step Back .center[<img src="images/sci_phiSci.png" height = 500 />] --- ## Further Back Do scientists always produce progress of science? .center[ <video width="800" height="500" controls preload> <source src="images/sci_youngSheldon.mp4" type="video/mp4"> </video> ] --- ## Further, further Back .center[.large[Is Scientific Always Wanted?]] --- .center[Credibility vs. Strong conclusions] .bg-black.golden.ba.shadow-5.ph4.mt3[ .center[ ## The Law of Decreasing Credibility Credibility .red[↓] when strength of assumptions .blue[↑]] ] ??? 只要有疫苗了，我们就安全了 疫苗是战胜新冠病毒之制胜关键 --- ## Abandoning Science? .center[ <video width="800" height="500" controls preload> <source src="images/sci_dontlookup.mp4" type="video/mp4"> </video> ] --- ## A True Story U.S. Congressional Budget Office & Joint Committee on Taxation: 1. Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act 1. Reconciliation Act -- .pull-left[<img src="images/elemendorf.jfif" height = 200 />] .pull-right[<img src="images/pelosi.jpg" height = 200 />] > Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimate that enacting both pieces of legislation...would produce a .red[net reduction] of changes in federal deficits of .red[$138 billion] over the 2010–-2019 period as a result of changes in direct spending and revenue. ??? Douglas Elmendorf: dean and Don K. Price Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi .orange[NEXT]: What's the problem --- ## Problem? > All such estimates are .red[uncertain] and that actual future impacts could differ significantly from the estimates of any given organization. .pull-right[--- U.S. Dep of Health and Human Services] ??? On a separate estimation of the health care legislation -- .center[.Large[Uncertainty!]] --- ## Uncertainty/Alternative Assumptions CBO: > ...a net reduction of changes in federal deficits of .blue[$138 billion]... Douglas Holtz-Eakin (Syracuse University): > The health care reform legislation would .magenta[raise], not lower, federal deficits, by .red[$562 billion]. -- .center[**138+562 (=700)** billion] ??? an economics professor at Syracuse University, 2003 director of CBO, Director of the Congressional Budget Office, and chief economic policy adviser to Senator John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign .orange[NEXT]: why do people tend to ignore the uncertainties + Complicated + Leader --- ## What Does the Decision Makers Say Lyndon Johnson, the 36th POTUS: > Ranges are for cattles. Give me a number. -- Jerry Hausman, MIT economist, the inventor of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman test: > You can't give the client a bound. The client needs a point. --- ## Why Leaders Don't Like Uncertainty? .center[<img src="images/uncertainty.png" height = 550 />] ??? left-up: fan chart from the Bank of England about inflation forecast --- class: middle, center .Large[What Should I Do?] -- .large[Being scientific and niche strategy!] -- Especially when someone is .red[listen to] you! --- ## Take-Home Points 1. Landscape of the Field + Positivist vs. post-positivist -- 1. Steps of scientific analysis: - Inquiry + DGP + Analysis + Assumption + Theory → Method + Data → Conclusion -- 1. Being scientific in a smart way --- class: inverse, bottom # DGP Workshop